Finals Rundown

So this post may be a lot shorter than I would like, but I haven't had time to write it yet and the finals get under way tonight so I've got to get it down before then.
I have heard so many commentators give the series to the Lakers without much hesitation, but I think there is a need to pause before making a choice. I am not saying I disagree with their pick, but I think people have become disillusioned by the Celtics performance in the playoffs and forget the success they have had all year. 66 wins is no joke. They are a phenomenal defensive team. They are not merely good or great, but they are very special when it comes down to what they can do defensively. And if the past 17 years have shown us anything, it is that defensive teams fare very well in the whole winning championships thing. The Celtics' defensive numbers match up much more favorably with those of the champions since 1991 than do the Lakers. And when I say much, I mean much. I think people become enamored with great offenses and expect them to accomplish more than they are capable of (i.e Phoenix Suns). Having said that, I think the Lakers have shown they can play defense when necessary too, although they proved it against a sporadic offense at best in San Antonio.
One other quick point. The collapse of Ray Allen in the playoffs has been incredible. He is the wildcard for them. PP and KG are both consistent in their around 20 ppg. They may abberate from that occasionally, but not by much either way. If Allen can play well in this series the Celtics will not seem to struggle offensively nearly as much as they have so far in the playoffs. His collapse really is the reason the Atlanta and Cleveland series both went 7 games. Not surprisingly, the series he had 2 good games was the 6 game Detroit series; a much tougher team that either Atlanta or Cleveland. He makes a huge difference in their offensive productivity. His outside shooting opens up the mid-range game for PP, the driving lanes for Rondo, and the box for KG. Without it, teams can sag on defense and it makes them much more stagnant offensively. If he shoots well, the Celts are very tough to beat.
The advantage I keep hearing for the Lakers is Kobe. Everyone keeps saying that he is the determining factor. He is what tips the scales in the Lakers favor. I remember watching MJ in his prime. Kobe is not MJ, but he is as close as we have had since then. He is the only player since MJ retired (from the Bulls the 2nd time) that has shown periods that he can completely dictate the outcome of a game. That was very apparent in the San Antonio series, especially in games 1 and 5. San Antonio is a great defensive team, so that may be a decent barometer of how he can play against Boston, but whether he will or not is another question. With all of the defensive and Ray Allen talk, I think that is the biggest factor in this series. Will Kobe absolutely take over like he did against San Antonio, or won't he?
I think he will. Lakers in 6.